President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a peace deal negotiated with American diplomats could be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives are expected to submit the terms to the Russian leadership.
Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, particularly because Russia's absence from the ongoing discussions.
In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy said that the US Congress is expected to vote on security guarantees and that a finalised set of documents might be ready “imminently.” He added that, the United States would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, leading to summit-level talks as soon as this weekend.
“The plan involves five key agreements. Some of them pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, approved and approved by the US Congress,” the president remarked to journalists. He stated that these assurances would “reflect article 5” of the Nato alliance.
Earlier, US officials declined to give specific details regarding the probable makeup of the security package or what would happen if Russia sought to capture additional territory after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the U.S. does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in the country.
Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European countries said in a unified declaration that troops from a “allied coalition” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring maritime security, including through conducting operations within its territory.”
They stopped short, however, of suggesting these actions would constitute assurances equivalent to NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the kind of arrangement under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.
On Tuesday, the Kremlin stated it had not received the details of the proposals on security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would never accept troops from NATO member states being stationed in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”
The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators remains the issue of land. One proposal centers on Ukraine ceding the areas of the Donbas it currently controls, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president remarked following the Berlin discussions.
The US negotiation team, led by two senior advisors, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russia would not move forward, with the resulting zone becoming “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use police and national guard units rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to control the territory.
“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ is not controlled by Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” stated Zelenskyy.
It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a compromise solution such as a special economic area could be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a referendum. The major impediment is likely to be when the proposals are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his war aims.
“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with precisely the situation we are experiencing on our plane right now – turbulence,” said Zelenskyy, making the statement after his plane took off from Berlin.
“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with additional armaments if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the Americans,” he concluded.
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